Will Trump's wall affect tourism in Mexico?
However, if there was one constant element in his speech it was fear abroad and the need to protect the border of the United States – something that he made palpable with his highly controversial and widely rejected ban on people from various Middle Eastern countries entering the country – and which is reflected in one of his most repeated promises: the border wall.
Trump assured his voters that he would build a wall on the border between the United States and Mexico , to curb the illegal trafficking of people and drugs. Although the specific details remain fuzzy (How will it be built? Where will it happen? And especially, who will pay for it?), Trump, to this day, continues to insist that it will happen… despite the fact that the logistics of a construction of such magnitude is, to say the least, complicated.
Although the wall, in the event that it is built, is still far from being a reality, its possible effects on tourism between the United States and Mexico, and worldwide, are already the subject of debate and controversy . Let's see them.
Graphic definition of "putting gates on the sea" (in San Diego)
TOURISM FROM THE UNITED STATES TO MEXICO
Right off the bat, tourism to Mexico need not be affected by the wall. Although it is not yet known exactly where the wall will pass, the current entrances to the country by land, in principle, would remain where they are; and air traffic does not have to be modified at all.
Will the desire of Americans to go to Mexico change, on the other hand? Is the idea of spring break in Cancun over, or the annual trips to the resorts of Puerto Vallarta? History suggests that this will not be the case: when Canada established its visa system for all Mexicans who wanted to travel to the country in 2009 (now canceled), Canadian tourism to Mexico it continued as before (according to the Money in Image newspaper, it even increased). For now, no reason to worry about american tourism either : During the 18 months of the presidential campaign, the arrival of Americans to Mexico** increased by 14%, according to Tourism Minister Enrique de la Madrid**.
The only possibility that tourism from the United States to Mexico could decrease in number is if Mexico, for its part, decides to retaliate (which did not happen with Canada). For example, Mexico could choose to follow the principle of reciprocity , Y require Americans a visa identical to the one required of Mexicans in the United States . The government, for now, has not expressed any intention to take such measures.
Another question in the air is whether American tourists could have problems entering their country again after having been in Mexico, or whether controls at land border posts will be tightened. Some have questioned whether the frequent flyer program between the two countries (the Trusted Traveler in Mexico, either Global Entry in the United States), which facilitates transit between the two countries, will also be affected.
TOURISM FROM MEXICO TO THE UNITED STATES
However, the wall is not intended to limit US movement, but rather Mexican movement. “Let us not forget that the wall is for Mexicans – not the other way around”, as journalist Carlos Velázquez writes.
In any case, the effects, at least initially, would be similar to those that would change US tourism. If the wall is simply erected, the movement from Mexico to the north should not be especially affected either , at least the legal one: the legal tourism and immigration channels, like the land entrances that already exist at certain points of the border, should remain the same.
The problem would be if from the hand of the wall they also come changes to legislation . Right now, Mexicans need a visa to travel to the United States as tourists, valid for ten years. The United States has not expressed, for now, any intention to change this law or rescind existing visas, although there has been at least one case of a Mexican woman who was denied entry to the country even with a valid visa.
Is there a possibility of a total ban on the entry of Mexicans into the United States? For now it is not known, although the background of the travel ban to travelers from Iraq, Syria, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen is not particularly reassuring.
WORLD TOURISM TO MEXICO
What about tourism from outside of North America? In the short term, world tourism to Mexico should not be affected by the wall . Long-term, the wall could erode Mexico's ability to invest in its tourism infrastructure . The country's budget could be affected if, somehow, Trump manages to get Mexico to pay for the wall and the government has to divert part of the funds they dedicate to tourism to meet that expense.
However, the greatest danger posed by the wall is not physical or economic: it's psychological . The United States' rejection of Mexico gives a very negative view of the country, exacerbated by Trump's inflammatory rhetoric in which he calls Mexicans rapists and criminals that ends up leaking to the media around the world. This, coupled with Mexico's reputation as an insecure country, does not help promote an image of a tourist destination.
But not all is lost. Mexico has many fans (among which we count ourselves), and several travel agencies have embarked on the mission of putting the country in its rightful place in world tourism. One of them has been the Spanish Destinia, which offers discounts on flights and hotels for travel between Mexico and the United States.
Aerial view of the dunes near Calexico
BUT... IS THE WALL GOING TO BE BUILT, REALLY?
The big question in this debate is whether the wall will actually be built. Unfortunately, at this point in the game there is no way to know for sure.
Experts have been saying since the beginning of Donald Trump's political campaign, when the idea first reared its head, that a wall like the one being proposed would be a work of incomprehensible dimensions, at least theoretically.
Its construction could cost more than 25 billion dollars, and that's without counting maintenance, which could exceed that figure in less than a decade. It should also be noted that, due to the geographical nature of the border, it is not very clear where exactly the wall would go. Not to mention that, as hard as Trump tries, Mexico has no intention of paying for the wall, not today, not ever.
Today, the wall seems an impossible work to carry out not only theoretically , but in any branch of physics that concerns him. As Pablo Pardo, correspondent for El Mundo in Washington, D.C., writes, “It's much easier to yell at rallies, 'Build the wall!' to make it a reality."
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