What happens if the Olympics are cancelled?
As the world struggles to stop the spread of the coronavirus, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) continues to state that the Tokyo Olympics will be held in July just as it was scheduled.
But with entire countries closed and everyday life now marked by social distancing – efforts based on the recommendations of medical organizations, which warn that large gatherings fuel the spread of the virus – the idea of organizing a sporting event, in which it is hoped that 11,000 athletes travel from 206 nations and around half a million visitors flock to the stadiums, it seems unrealistic.
The Tokyo 2020 Olympic flame is displayed outside Hanamaki Station in Iwate Prefecture.
WHAT THE ORGANIZATION SAYS
Last month, Dick Pound, a former IOC vice president, said in an interview with the Associated Press that the Committee had set the end of May as the deadline for announcing the cancellation of the event.
And although many have raised the possibility of a postponement, Pound was explicit in assuring that, if an announcement was made, it would be the cancellation, never the postponement. "You just can't postpone something the size and scale of the Olympics," Pound said. "There are So many factors involved so many different countries and seasons, from competitive to TV. Probably what will happen will be a cancellation."
The IOC met last week with key stakeholders and made statements through its website and denied to the press that there was a deadline in May, insisting that the Games will go ahead as scheduled.
Japan assures that it is prepared to celebrate them normally.
Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also announced at a press conference last week that they may "Hold the Olympic Games and Paralympic Games perfectly, as proof that the human race will be able to conquer the new coronavirus."
To allay any doubts about what "perfectly" might mean, Olympics Minister Seiko Hashimoto later clarified Abe's statement, as reported by Time,* adding: "Perfectly means preparing properly to carry out the Games as planned." they had planned."
"As far as I know, no decision will be made in the short term regarding the future of the Olympic Games," Dr. Mike Ryan, head of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Health Emergencies Program, said in a phone interview with reporters last week, according to CNBC. .
Ryan says that the WHO is currently advising the IOC on the next steps to take, and noted that there were Olympics during the SARS and Zika outbreaks, which were a concern at the last Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro in 2016.
During the Rio de Janeiro Olympics there was concern about the SARS and Zika outbreaks.
PAST CANCELLATIONS OF THE OLYMPIC GAMES
The last time the Olympics were canceled was during the winter of 1944, due to World War II. The war has been the only circumstance that has justified its cancellation: the 1916 Summer Olympics were suspended during World War I; also the 1940 and 1944 Summer and Winter Olympics due to World War II.
But the US government and other countries have likened this pandemic to a period of war. Many Olympic and Paralympic qualifying events have been cancelled; others postponed. Olympic training centers in the US have closed and the first rumors about Olympic athletes who have contracted the virus are beginning to appear.
And of course those who are planning the Games are not immune: the vice president of the Japan Olympic Committee, Kozo Tashimia, has tested positive and John Coates, the head of the IOC's coordination commission for the Tokyo Olympics, will go into government-mandated self-isolation when he returns to his home in Australia after an Olympic trip to Europe.
Closing ceremony of the 1908 London Olympics.
ALTERNATIVES TO CANCELLATION
Although Pound's initial statements regarding the May deadline have been dismissed, they are interesting. some of the alternatives by him in his interview with the AP about what it would mean to postpone the games, and the challenges of each involved.
One possible scenario would be to move the event to another city (presumably one with a minor outbreak), but Pound acknowledged that few places in the world could host an event of that size in such a short amount of time. And of course, since the coronavirus has reached pandemic levels, **the problem seems to be holding the Games itself, not holding them in Tokyo. **
While Tokyo had one of the first largest outbreaks aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, there are now larger ones in many other countries. London mayoral candidate Shaun Bailey has proposed that his city take them on, although outbreaks across Europe, including in nearby countries like France, are currently worse than the situation in Japan.
The Spice Girls during the closing ceremony of the 2012 London Olympics.
Another likely scenario Pound broached was the idea of distribute the events to several cities, though he quickly dismissed it as being against the spirit of the games. "[That would not] be an Olympics," Pound said. "You would end up doing a series of world championships."
The idea of simply postpone the games, for several months or even a year, has also been put on the table, but many have raised the problem of combining them with the schedules of other international sporting events, in addition international sporting event schedules are already planned well beyond 2021. (The next five Olympics, through the summer of 2028 in Los Angeles, already have host cities assigned.)
It would be incredibly difficult to organize an event as massive as the Olympics when athletes and sports channels already have other commitments and contracts signed for years. According to the Los Angeles Times, NBCUniversal would have paid billions for the broadcasting rights in the US alone. Spreading the event over several months would interfere with the broadcasts of the football season in the US, as well as some relevant sports seasons in other parts of the world.
The postponement would be a problem due to the broadcast schedule of other sporting events.
OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER
The IOC affirms that any future decision will obey two fundamental principles: protect the health of all those involved and safeguard the interests of athletes and Olympic sport. But the interests of many involved are largely financial.
The AP claims that nearly 75 percent of the IOC's revenue over a four-year cycle (more than $5 billion) comes from broadcast rights, which are precariously locked on scheduled dates. Backers have paid billions, both in contracts with athletes and in the planning of advertising projects. Countries sending athletes have booked hotels, flights and more, as have travelers planning to attend.
Tokyo claimed to have spent 12.6 billion dollars to organize the Games, although the National Audit Board of Japan, in a report presented to the national legislature, assures that spending has doubled.
Delta Air Lines has just announced its partnership with the LA28 Olympics.
Often, the hope is that ticket sales will generate parallel income to the investment of the host country in organizing them, however, Tokyo anticipated 800 million dollars in ticket revenue, an amount markedly less than that already spent. If the games go ahead as planned, it can only be assumed that ticket sales will be lower than anticipated.
Given the high cost of hosting the event, the IOC is understandably having trouble justifying the postponement, especially as returns through advertising, broadcasting and attendance decline. More difficult to justify is continuing without adapting to the current state of the world.
"The policy of delaying games has changed," he wrote in Twitter Tobias Harris , special envoy in Japan for Teneo Intelligence in Washington . “During the early days of the crisis, announcing the delay would have meant admitting that Abe had not been able to handle the situation. Now that it is a global crisis, the delay may be necessary to defend the Japanese people." Ultimately, under the contract with the host cities, the IOC has the final say on cancellation or postponement, regardless of whether or not the Japanese situation changes.
A survey released by Kyodo News last week shows that 70 percent of Japanese do not expect the Games to go ahead as planned.
· The IOC announced this Sunday, March 22, 2020, that a month is given to decide the date of the Tokyo 2020 Games.
· Article originally published in the American version of Condé Nast Traveler.
There seems to be no alternative to canceling the Olympics.