What if we lose the desire to travel?
After the First World War, the city of Paris was filled with ex-combatants willing to erase their sentences based on champagne and gin.
At the end of World War II, the theme parks became the main attraction for the children of the returned soldiers who they supposed the germ of the "baby boom" and, after the attack on the Twin Towers on September 11, 2001, fly in a plane it was never the same again.
The tourism that we know today (or knew) was woven, in part, by the social consequences derived from the major catastrophes recent of mankind. However, **nobody expected a pandemic. **
'Roaring 20's' in Paris
The health crisis currently shaking the world throws new challenges but also many doubts , especially when, unlike bombings and attacks, the conflict is collective and the common enemy A virus that can only be sentenced by a vaccine.
And it is that a year ago, nobody would have thought that the mask would become an essential complement to the routine, that teleworking would be our daily bread and uncertainty, the background of a new generation.
A crisis to which, of course, tourism does not escape either. After confinement and its consequent de-escalation, most of us have limited ourselves to traveling to our town, carrying out a caravan getaway or even stay at home.
Only then does the question float in the air, leaving a nostalgic residue: Will we go back to the old days? To travel far?** To Hong Kong or Costa Rica? **
We talked to different experts about the future of long trips, although we already give you a first clue: goodbye, mass tourism.
IT'S NOT SURVIVING, IT'S ADAPTING
The answers to the future of travel are born in the present itself. In a very different routine from that of yesteryear. In our current behavior: “The simple fact of teleworking already supposes a different concept of mobility that, transferred to travel, will depend on the 'loopholes' of each one of us", psychologist Sebastián Mera tells Traveler.es.
Goodbye to mass tourism
“The predisposition to travel it's not going to be the same for someone has lost a loved one than for those who have not been so affected”, Sebastián continues, alleging that during these months, a large part of the patients yearn to return to the zero moment in which living locked up meant not being exposed to the virus like now.
“Human beings have always had problems managing uncertainty , and this is going to become the main problem in the coming months, since we are always going to be on alert in the event of a regrowth.
In addition to our own way of coping with uncertainty, there are two other factors that condition our short-term predisposition, not only to travel, but to consume any type of leisure: the "benefits" of the new normality and the influence of excess information.
“Beyond the virus itself, the pandemic It has been a transformative experience." , psychologist Anabel Báez tells Traveler.es.
We have returned to the village
“People have always felt that we had to travel the farther the better and go out every weekend because that's what he had to do. However, with this break many of us have discovered that we feel good and we have seen that not everything we did was crucial. That you can live without going out on a Saturday and going to your town instead of going to a distant country. This has been the first common experience of a generation and has fostered a sense of community because, unlike other events, all we have a common fear she continues.
“If we also dig a little deeper, we discover that information overload is also a problem especially in people at risk. our elders They used to have a very marked routine that today has been transformed and that depends, to a greater or lesser extent, on staying locked up looking out that window called television, full of news that put even more fear in the body . That conditions”.
Uncertainty, tweet bombing , the acceptance of the new rhythm of a world spinning too fast . Just some of the nuances that make up the pattern of the current average traveler but, for some, not the one of the future:
“If we pay attention to Darwin , he who survives is not the strongest, but he who best fits” , Add Sebastian Mer. Once we are aware of this reality, it is worth asking if certain habits will be temporary or if they will stay with us forever.
We will thoroughly explore our geography before crossing borders
“Of course the pandemic will leave us with certain reminders and changes of social habits which, contextualized, can even become constructive and healthy , says the psychologist Laura Palomares.
"We will go through a time of caution and, let's say, of 'groping' before traveling far again . This is good and adaptive but, after that period and once we verify that the danger has passed , with a high probability we will return to our activities, perhaps with new precautions, yes, but we will lose that alert little by little. The human being has the flexibility of adapt with agility and lose fear , so in most cases they will not develop disorders such as hodophobia (travel phobia) or the like”.
A PSYCHOLOGICAL… AND ECONOMIC FACTOR
The future of the world of travel, like that of many other sectors, depends on obvious psychological traits so inherent in the current situation.
However, other factors also come into play. And one of them is undoubtedly the dreaded economic crisis . Especially in a country like Spain, where the 33% of households Spaniards can not afford not a week of vacation a year and unemployment will only increase, will there be the same predisposition to travel?
"For now, it's all speculation, but there are trends What do we see now and what can be consolidated in the medium term” , tells Traveler.es the sociologist Javier Arenas.
There will be a trend towards national getaways
“The majority concern of today's society continues to be Health Care, but they are gaining more and more importance economic consequences of the pandemic, since a great retraction in family spending and that has important consequences in the products and services that are bought and, especially, how they are bought (flexible hiring, for example). and that reality It especially affects long trips.
Javier insists on the bad forecasts of international tourism, since some sources speak of a Recovery from previous levels in three years , while others place it in a margin between five and ten years periods in which we should already have a vaccine.
“In my opinion, only the laboratories of the richest countries are in a position to obtain a vaccine and, therefore, the populations of these countries would be the first to be vaccinated while those in poor countries will take years to be vaccinated , if they ever get to be”, continues Javier.
“International tourists come mostly from rich countries. If thanks to the vaccine they are already immune to COVID-19 , they should not be afraid to travel to any destination because, in theory, they cannot contract the disease. Another thing is that we meet those countries in a bland desert state and that also produces a collective rejection”.
WE WILL BE MARCO POLO AGAIN
Our predisposition to travel and the situation of the economy are key concepts to understand the future of long trips but, once faced, beyond the "what" and "when", the “how” will be key to decipher our future adventures.
Given the threat that Venice is suffering, it is a good time to remember its heritage...
Only then we are left to ask ourselves: Will we travel the same as before? Will Venice look as overwhelmed as in 2019 and will we push ourselves to take the best picture of that sunset in Bali? But especially: Will we travel far again?
"Absolutely yes," says Pablo Pascual Bécares, director of the travel agency Geographical Society of the Indies. “We will travel far again, but it is very likely that we will do it differently . The safety factor and perception will be key for a long time in the choice of destination and it is likely that there will be more component of nature and less of big cities . A Maldives against a Singapore, for example”.
A reality that would undermine the concept of group travel and "travel for the sake of travel": "The actors in the world of travel (insurance, hotels, transportation, experiences, agencies, etc.) are already prepared for the new situation . It is necessary that borders continue to be opened, of course, but that will happen soon. And a little later, a part of the clients will want to travel again, with caution, safely, with more guarantees, thoroughly reading the cancellation policies and those things that were rarely read”, continues Pablo, a fervent defender of a future of less mass travel.
Maldives vs. Singapore
“The long-distance trip is going to recover the tasty flavor of yesteryear. With the development of industrial tourism, we had reached a point where traveling and doing it far away was almost an obligation . But the future of travel in the medium term does not continue there. It will matter again the what, the how, the with whom and not so much the where” , he asserts, before spouting the ultimate mantra for the future of long-distance travel: "There will be fewer tourists and more travelers."
"It will matter again what, how, with whom and not so much where"