Every year, around this time, we ask ourselves the same question: What is the weather going to be like at Easter? And we hope the answer comes in the form of Sun rays and temperatures that invite you to enjoy the beaches, mountains, towns and cities of our beautiful and varied geography.
The Holy Week 2022 starts on April 10, Palm Sunday, and ends the April 17, Easter Sunday.
To clear up any doubts and plan our Easter getaways, we have consulted the experts and compiled information regarding the Weather forecast facing these dates –which of course, we will update with the latest news that reaches us–.
Will rain? It will not rain?
WITH WHAT SCENARIO DO WE ARRIVE TO HOLY WEEK?
The first months of 2022 have been marked by a severe drought caused by an anticyclonic blockade but March came with a pronounced change in weather, which brought with it the stormy Celia and the unusual episode of calima.After Celia, there has been "a southern corridor oriented towards the Peninsula for the arrival of new Atlantic storms coming from the west” , He says Francisco Martín, meteorologist of Meteored (weather.com).
A) Yes, March 2022 will go down in history as a very wet month , but still insufficient to reverse the precipitation deficit of this hydrological year (since October 1, 2021).
FORECAST FOR HOLY WEEK
We will all be familiar with images of brothers looking at the sky and the processions that have to be suspended due to rain.
The truth is that considering the dates on which Holy Week is celebrated, “ It is observed that one day or several within that period, to a greater or lesser extent, the rain makes an appearance, ”they report from Meteored. Let's see it in detail.
Palm Sunday will be a pleasant day with high temperatures.
SATURDAY APRIL 9 AND PALM SUNDAY
After a start of April with intense cold, temperatures are rising . "In these dates weather changes are common and that is why it is common for sunny days turn to rainy during the days that coincide with Holy Week”, comments Jose Antonio Maldonado, director of meteorology Meteored.
The saturday april 9 An increase in daytime temperatures is expected in Andalusia and the Region of Murcia, reaching 25 ºC in Seville Y Malaga.
On Sunday, April 10, Palm Sunday, “a new Atlantic front will approach the Peninsula generating light rain in Galicia at the last minute. In Catalonia, Valencian Community and the north of the Canary Islands it could also rain lightly” points out José Antonio Maldonado.
In the rest of Spain we will have clear skies and rising temperatures. "There will be maximums of 26 ºC in Jaén and Orense”, he points out.
HOLY MONDAY
Easter 2022, like other years, will have a very variable time: “at the beginning, a trough will leave numerous showers and later, an anticyclonic ridge will bring back the sun” , they report from Meteored.
The monday april 11 , the Atlantic front will cross the Peninsula from west to east leaving widespread rain in its wake, which will be more abundant on the Atlantic slope and unlikely in the southern Mediterranean.
Some showers will be accompanied by thunderstorms: "With the passage of the front, temperatures will drop, but there will still be records 25 ºC in Murcia, 24 ºC in Seville or 23 ºC in Córdoba.
On Monday, April 11, moderate rains are sensed in the western half of the peninsula.
HOLY TUESDAY
The tuesday april 12 , after the passage of the previous front, some clearings will open, “but a new front will generate instability and the day will be marked by the widespread rainfall," explains the director of meteorology at Meteored.
During this day, the rains will be intermittent and the most intense nuclei, again with storms, will be irregularly distributed.
At high altitudes there will be snowfall, and temperatures will drop so that they will not exceed 15 ºC in Valladolid, Zamora, Madrid and other cities in the interior northwest of the peninsula. In the north of Canary Islands it might rain lightly.
HOLY WEDNESDAY
Wednesday April 13 instability will continue in the northern third, especially in Catalonia , where it could rain heavily.
will also be recorded rainfall in eastern Andalusia and the Balearic Islands, with a tendency to subside”, José Antonio Maldonado continues.
Finally, temperatures will recover, reaching values close to 20 ºC in Valencia or Alicante, Meanwhile in Seville could reach 25 ºC.
HOLY THURSDAY
The Holy Thursday, April 14, there could be some showers of a weak character in Galicia while in the other regions, the clear or slightly cloudy skies.
“Daytime temperatures will continue to rise and in a large part of the peninsular interior it will exceed 20 ºC, in the case of Zaragoza, Cuenca or Albacete. The coastal areas will not reach this mark but the environment will be pleasant”, he concludes.
GOOD FRIDAY, HOLY SATURDAY AND RESURRECTION SUNDAY
On April 15, 16 and 17 (Good Friday, Holy Saturday and Easter Sunday), it is expected an anticyclonic situation with sunny atmosphere and pleasant temperatures.
In the inner depressions the thermometer could reach or even exceed 25 ºC, “which is precisely the maximum foreseen for Seville, Cáceres, Lleida or Huesca on several of those days”, they point out from Meteored.
Spring, increasingly abrupt.
SPRING, INCREASINGLY EXTREME
"Climate change is altering the rhythm of the seasons of the year," he says. José Miguel Viñas, meteorologist at Meteored. The data shows that, in recent years, spring has become more abrupt: “every time it arrives earlier and in many cases it presents not only exceptional episodes of heat, but also heavy rains”, point.
These extremes are what can be expected more and more on the dates of Holy Week, so whenever we ask ourselves about the weather for those dates, the answer will point more to heat than cold and with "an increasing probability of some climatic extreme".
“The flowering, the migrations or the times of reproduction of some animals they are changing due to the changeable spring weather. Among these changes, the reduction of rain episodes, which decrease in number but are more intense”, they affirm from Meteored.
What is the weather going to be like in Spain at Easter?
A COLD START… WITH A WARM END
Starting in mid-April, the range of scenarios opens up: “initially, we will have a meridional circulation pattern that will give way to a wide uncertainty where there are many scenarios contemplated ”, they tell from Meteored.
But this uncertainty gives us an important clue: “ during the month of April, the polar jet will continue to be weak and highly variable . The probability that air masses from latitudes very different from ours will continue to affect us is relatively high”, they continue.
In this situation, it is most likely that After a particularly cold start, the month of April also stands out for the arrival of much warmer air masses”.
According to the current forecasts and the scenarios contemplated by the confidence model of Meteored, the IFS of the ECMWF, April is likely to see temperatures around average or slightly above.
Tenerife is always a yes.
IF WE LOOK AT THE LAST 30 YEARS…
The time is has carried out a weather analysis to find out which places are statistically warmer and less rainy, taking into account the time he has done in the last 30 years on the dates on which Easter falls this 2022.
One of the results of this report is that in many areas of Spain “ It is already normal that between April 10 and 18 there are more than 20ºC in the central hours of the day.
According to the climatology of these dates, in points of twenty spanish provinces, on average, the temperatures have been equal to or greater than 20ºC, being the Valencian Community, Andalusia and the Canary Islands the autonomous communities where it is more common to find pleasant temperatures.
“Also in the south of Extremadura and in the west of Castilla-La Mancha It is quite likely that there will be pleasant temperatures, between 20-22ºC in the central hours of the day”.
Refering to north half, There are also areas with a mild climate during spring afternoons: Ourense, Zaragoza, Tarragona or Lleida have high maximums. However, at some points like Lleida or Ourense the nights are still cold and the normal thing is that at dawn the thermometers drop below 7ºC.
In the Canary Islands and in the peninsular southeast it rains less than 20% of the days. In fact, “in Fuerteventura and in the south of the island of Tenerife it did not rain even 10% of the days of the analyzed period” so it can be said that Easter there is usually very dry. The Palm It is the island of the archipelago where it usually rains the most and it only does so 20% of the days, with an average precipitation of only 6 liters per square meter.
In the heat of Seville.
THE 20-20 RULE
If you still have doubts about which destination to choose for your Easter getaway, eltiempo.es recommends applying the 20-20 rule, that is, taking into account the areas with average maximum of more than 20ºC and less than 20% of rainy days.
What places meet this rule? The coasts of Malaga, Almeria, Murcia, Alicante and the Canary Islands.
"Although they do not comply with the 20-20 rule, there are other coastal areas that also have a pleasant climate at this time," they add. For example in Valencia there are usually some 21ºC and it only rains 23% of the days. In Palm (Majorca) temperatures range between a minimum of 12ºC and 19ºC maximum and it usually rains 24% of the days , is a similar figure to that of Barcelona.
If we go to the north of Spain, the data is not so hopeful: "in Saint Sebastian , the rainiest city in Spain, it rains 57% of the days . In Gijon and other points of the Asturian coast also more than half. Also in Santander it rains a 48% of the days and temperatures throughout the day are on average between 10-16ºC”.